Gerry
2004-11-28 18:13:10 UTC
CLIMATE CHANGE: IT'S WORSE THAN YOU THINK
We have heard a lot about climate change and the need to reduce emissions of
greenhouse gases such as CO2. Although we are told that climate change will
lead to an increase in floods, droughts and hurricanes, many people assume
that the changes will be very slow and, for people living in cold climates,
they could mean some nice warm weather.
BUT THE THREAT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IS MUCH WORSE THAN MOST PEOPLE IMAGINE.
There is a real risk that rising temperatures could spiral out of control
and reach levels that would wipe out the majority of species on the planet,
including the human species:
* CO2 in the atmosphere has risen sharply since industrialisation to a level
that has probably not been exceeded for at least 20 million years. This is
likely to mean substantial rises in global temperatures (note 1) (although
changes in ocean currents may cause some local cooling (note 2)).
* As temperatures rise, soils will cease to absorb CO2 as they do now and
will start to release it. As forests die, they will stop absorbing CO2 and
will release it as they burn or decay. These increases in CO2 will
accelerate rising temperatures (notes 3, 4).
* Rising temperatures may also cause methane to be released from the vast
deposits of methane hydrates that exist at the bottom of the sea-and also
from melting permafrost. Since methane is about 20 times more potent as a
greenhouse gas than CO2, release of methane would cause further increases in
temperature leading to the release of more methane in a positive feedback
loop or vicious circle (notes 5, 6, 7).
* There have been several mass extinctions in the geological history of the
world and some of them appear to have been caused by runaway global warming
(notes 8, 9).
* These things may happen much sooner and much more quickly than many people
imagine. On several occasions in the past, the world's climate has changed
dramatically and abruptly in the space of a few years (notes 10, 11).
Given these risks, there is an urgent need for large cuts in emissions of
CO2 and other greenhouse gases. This must be the very highest priority for
the world. The UK Government's aim of cutting CO2 emissions by 60% by the
year 2050 is welcome but deeper cuts are needed, and sooner.
THE REJECTION OF THE KYOTO PROTOCOL BY THE USA
AND THEIR TOTALLY INADEQUATE POLICIES FOR REDUCING
THEIR HUGE AND GROWING EMISSIONS OF CO2 ARE
A RECIPE FOR DISASTER.
THE THREAT OF CLIMATE CHANGE: QUOTES
"The ultimate concern is that if runaway global warming occurred,
temperatures could spiral out of control and make our planet uninhabitable.
... this is the first time that a species has been at risk of generating its
own demise. ... The dinosaurs dominated the earth for 160 million years. We
are in danger of putting our future at risk after a mere quarter of a
million years." Michael Meacher, UK Minister for the Environment 1997-2003,
The Guardian, 14 February 2003.
"... the impacts of global warming are such that I have no hesitation in
describing it as a 'weapon of mass destruction'". Sir John Houghton, former
chief executive of the UK Meteorological Office and co-chair of the
Scientific Assessment Working Group of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change, The Guardian, 28 July 2003.
"If today's warming continues and deep-sea temperatures cross the threshold
at which methane hydrates melt, huge amounts of methane could be released,
triggering drastic global warming." Jeff Hecht, New Scientist, 7 December
2002.
"If a qualitative climate change were to occur suddenly in the coming
century-within less than 10 years - as has happened many times before in
geological history, we may already have written our epitaph." Jeremy Rifkin,
President of the Foundation on Economic Trends in Washington DC, The
Guardian, 1 March 2002.
"Lost forest cover, decaying vegetation and overheated soils are expected to
release as much as 77 gigatonnes of carbon into the atmosphere. This will
raise global temperatures significantly more than the UN's Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change predicts to date ... THE BATTLE TO GET GREENHOUSE
GAS LEVELS UNDER CONTROL OUGHT TO BE TREATED AS GLOBAL PRIORITY NUMBER ONE."
Tam Dalyell MP, New Scientist, 7 February 2003 (emphasis added).
"... in a world without deep emissions reductions, warming will kill many
tropical forests in the second half of the twenty-first century, returning
vast quantities of carbon to the atmosphere. This would run the risk of
tipping the world into runaway global warming." Jeremy Leggett, The Carbon
War, 2001, p. 323.
Issued by the CAMPAIGN AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE (www.campaigncc.org).
NOTES
1 IPCC Third Assessment Report: Climate Change 2001
(http://www.ipcc.ch/pub/reports.htm).
2 Phil. Trans. Royal Soc. London A 361 (1810), 1961-1974, 2003.
3 Nature 408, 184-187, 2000.
4 Geophysical Research Letters 30 (9), 1479, 2003.
5 IPCC Climate Change 2001: Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and
Vulnerability (http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg2/index.htm).
6 Nature 401, 775-778, 1999.
7 Nature 406, 392-395, 2000.
8 When Life Nearly Died, M. J. Benton, Thames & Hudson, London, 2003.
9 See notes 5 and 6.
10 Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises, US National Academy of
Sciences, 2002 (http://www.nap.edu/books/0309074347/html).
11 Science 299 (5615), 2005-2010, 2003.
We have heard a lot about climate change and the need to reduce emissions of
greenhouse gases such as CO2. Although we are told that climate change will
lead to an increase in floods, droughts and hurricanes, many people assume
that the changes will be very slow and, for people living in cold climates,
they could mean some nice warm weather.
BUT THE THREAT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IS MUCH WORSE THAN MOST PEOPLE IMAGINE.
There is a real risk that rising temperatures could spiral out of control
and reach levels that would wipe out the majority of species on the planet,
including the human species:
* CO2 in the atmosphere has risen sharply since industrialisation to a level
that has probably not been exceeded for at least 20 million years. This is
likely to mean substantial rises in global temperatures (note 1) (although
changes in ocean currents may cause some local cooling (note 2)).
* As temperatures rise, soils will cease to absorb CO2 as they do now and
will start to release it. As forests die, they will stop absorbing CO2 and
will release it as they burn or decay. These increases in CO2 will
accelerate rising temperatures (notes 3, 4).
* Rising temperatures may also cause methane to be released from the vast
deposits of methane hydrates that exist at the bottom of the sea-and also
from melting permafrost. Since methane is about 20 times more potent as a
greenhouse gas than CO2, release of methane would cause further increases in
temperature leading to the release of more methane in a positive feedback
loop or vicious circle (notes 5, 6, 7).
* There have been several mass extinctions in the geological history of the
world and some of them appear to have been caused by runaway global warming
(notes 8, 9).
* These things may happen much sooner and much more quickly than many people
imagine. On several occasions in the past, the world's climate has changed
dramatically and abruptly in the space of a few years (notes 10, 11).
Given these risks, there is an urgent need for large cuts in emissions of
CO2 and other greenhouse gases. This must be the very highest priority for
the world. The UK Government's aim of cutting CO2 emissions by 60% by the
year 2050 is welcome but deeper cuts are needed, and sooner.
THE REJECTION OF THE KYOTO PROTOCOL BY THE USA
AND THEIR TOTALLY INADEQUATE POLICIES FOR REDUCING
THEIR HUGE AND GROWING EMISSIONS OF CO2 ARE
A RECIPE FOR DISASTER.
THE THREAT OF CLIMATE CHANGE: QUOTES
"The ultimate concern is that if runaway global warming occurred,
temperatures could spiral out of control and make our planet uninhabitable.
... this is the first time that a species has been at risk of generating its
own demise. ... The dinosaurs dominated the earth for 160 million years. We
are in danger of putting our future at risk after a mere quarter of a
million years." Michael Meacher, UK Minister for the Environment 1997-2003,
The Guardian, 14 February 2003.
"... the impacts of global warming are such that I have no hesitation in
describing it as a 'weapon of mass destruction'". Sir John Houghton, former
chief executive of the UK Meteorological Office and co-chair of the
Scientific Assessment Working Group of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change, The Guardian, 28 July 2003.
"If today's warming continues and deep-sea temperatures cross the threshold
at which methane hydrates melt, huge amounts of methane could be released,
triggering drastic global warming." Jeff Hecht, New Scientist, 7 December
2002.
"If a qualitative climate change were to occur suddenly in the coming
century-within less than 10 years - as has happened many times before in
geological history, we may already have written our epitaph." Jeremy Rifkin,
President of the Foundation on Economic Trends in Washington DC, The
Guardian, 1 March 2002.
"Lost forest cover, decaying vegetation and overheated soils are expected to
release as much as 77 gigatonnes of carbon into the atmosphere. This will
raise global temperatures significantly more than the UN's Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change predicts to date ... THE BATTLE TO GET GREENHOUSE
GAS LEVELS UNDER CONTROL OUGHT TO BE TREATED AS GLOBAL PRIORITY NUMBER ONE."
Tam Dalyell MP, New Scientist, 7 February 2003 (emphasis added).
"... in a world without deep emissions reductions, warming will kill many
tropical forests in the second half of the twenty-first century, returning
vast quantities of carbon to the atmosphere. This would run the risk of
tipping the world into runaway global warming." Jeremy Leggett, The Carbon
War, 2001, p. 323.
Issued by the CAMPAIGN AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE (www.campaigncc.org).
NOTES
1 IPCC Third Assessment Report: Climate Change 2001
(http://www.ipcc.ch/pub/reports.htm).
2 Phil. Trans. Royal Soc. London A 361 (1810), 1961-1974, 2003.
3 Nature 408, 184-187, 2000.
4 Geophysical Research Letters 30 (9), 1479, 2003.
5 IPCC Climate Change 2001: Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and
Vulnerability (http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg2/index.htm).
6 Nature 401, 775-778, 1999.
7 Nature 406, 392-395, 2000.
8 When Life Nearly Died, M. J. Benton, Thames & Hudson, London, 2003.
9 See notes 5 and 6.
10 Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises, US National Academy of
Sciences, 2002 (http://www.nap.edu/books/0309074347/html).
11 Science 299 (5615), 2005-2010, 2003.